The roots of conflict between Russia and Ukraine
An historical perspective
The tensions between Russia and Ukraine have been connected to many wars, including WW1 and WW2. On the European ground these two global conflicts tore our continent apart, and caused the greatest number of deaths that history can remember.
However with the recent developments, peace seems to be in danger, with the winds of a great war once again threatening the continent.
The current tensions arise for a number of reasons, beginning with the annexation of Crimea to Russia, which previously belonged to Ukraine. In 1922, following the Russian Revolution, Ukraine became part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (URSS). In 1954, to celebrate “300 years of friendship between Ukraine and Russia”, the U.R.S.S. decided to annex Crimea, which was part of the Russian federation, to Ukraine. However, on 24 August 1991 the Ukrainian Parliament adopted the Independence Act of Ukraine through which the Parliament declared Ukraine an independent and democratic state. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Crimea proclaimed self-government on May 5 1992, but later agreed to remain within the independent Ukraine as an autonomous republic. Nevertheless, Crimea’s history turned out to be more tortuous than expected. On March 6 2014 the Russians took control of Crimea confirming its annexation to Russia. Putin has so questioned the principles of International law, according to which countries may not acquire territory or change borders by force. In fact, since 1945 the ONU has imposed the ban of aggression between states. Not even the Kyiv government seems to want to recognize the annexation of Crimea to Russia, because it is considered a violation of the agreements that safeguard territorial integrity. From 2014 onward, the conflict on the Eastern border has never really stopped and it remained at a low intensity, causing 14,000 victims over the last 8 years.
The current tensions arise also because of the eastward enlargement of NATO. Nowadays Moscow strongly opposes Ukraine joining NATO, stressing that it cannot accept Western military bases near its borders. For Moscow, its NATO membership would be considered a hostile act and an attempt of encirclement. Moreover, Vladimir Putin does not seem willing for now to withdraw the 190,000 troops amassed on the border with Ukraine. At the same time NATO has ruled out meeting Russian demands to limit its presence in Eastern Europe, because these requests are deemed as unacceptable. Of the 14 countries bordering Russia, five are already part of NATO, two more are entering and Finland is considering joining it. Given this short background, nobody was expecting what was about to come.
It’s the early hours of Tuesday, 24th February, when the Russian government releases a pre-registered video of its president Vladimir Putin declaring the beginning of a “special military operation” to “demilitarise” Ukraine and threatening that “anyone who tries to interfere with us” will face “consequences you have never faced in your history”.
The invasion started with artillery attacks on major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv and Kharkiv, causing dozens of victims in a short time. Pressure on the North, East and South border followed, with Russians conquering dozens of cities and killing 40 people, but the main objective remained the capital. Kyiv unfortunately endured frequent bombardments and the Russian troops descended and started encircling the city, forcing the population to flee to the West or to find repair in the underground metro. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile decided to remain in the city together with some ministers.
The Russian actions created a ripple of economic and political consequences throughout the world. Prices of oil, gas, wheat and gold skyrocketed, since they are key resources. This could potentially lead to even higher inflation rates and worsen the already precarious economic situation. From a political point of view instead, the US, EU and individual states discussed the possible sanctions and actions that could be undertaken to stop the conflict.
Bombings continued also in the night leading to the second day of conflict. Kyiv, despite the multiple attacks, remained under Ukrainian control, while Zelensky asked citizens to resist and distributed guns and instructions for making molotov. Explosions were also heard in Kharkiv (the second biggest city in the country) and Mariupol, targeted because of its strategic position on the Black Sea. Russians later gained control of the city of Cernobyl, raising concerns over the safety of the whole area. As a consequence, world leaders criticised the aggression and significantly increased sanctions on Russia.
On day three, the capital was still under Ukraine’s control and as the Russians came closer, residents were asked to stay inside, safe from the external conflict. At the same time, fights took place in Kharkiv and the maritime city of Odessa. As a result, according to the UN 198 were killed, thousands were wounded and more than 120,000 fled the country and reached bordering countries like Poland, Moldova and Romania. Other sanctions were applied and included freezing Russia’s Central Bank’s assets abroad and cutting out some banks from the Swift system. This system enables the exchange of information needed to conclude financial transactions.
Yesterday, Ukraine repelled the attack on Kharkiv and Kyiv and resisted the external pressure of the Russian troops. On the EU side, unseen measures have been taken: its airspace was closed for Russian planes (both civil and military ones) and Russian state media outlets were banned. Many member states and the US decided to provide weapons, fuel and other kinds of support. Furthermore, NATO decided to send more troops and forces across the Eastern border. This response was not well accepted by Vladimir Putin, who put nuclear forces on high alert, allegedly because of the “aggressive statements” of the West. It is important to highlight that this does imply that Russia intends to use these weapons.
Three interesting elements emerged from this conflict and could potentially change its results. First of all, social media plays a fundamental role in sharing news across the whole world. Twitter and other platforms have become the digital battlefield of this world, with politicians expressing their position and opinions directly on the world wide web. People watched in real time the hardships and the attacks, but as we know it is a double-edged sword, with fake news and censorship distorting the truth. Secondly, the web was also the mean used by Anonymous, an international hacker group, which declared a cybernetic war against Russia, by taking down government sites, interfering with national channels and communications between troops. Last but not least, it is important to mention the protests for peace being held in hundreds of cities throughout the world, including Russia, where more than 2000 people have been arrested.
The world, after living through the traumas of a pandemic, is now faced with one of the most terrifying conflicts and tensions since 1945. Though, compared to that time war is now fought not only physically, but also on phones and computers with instagram stories and tweets. Is this the beginning of cold war 2.0?
by Beatrice Bottazzi and Benedetta Stoiculiasa
